Reliable application of machine learning-based decision systems in the wild is one of the major challenges currently investigated by the field. A large portion of established approaches aims to detect erroneous predictions by means of assigning confidence scores. This confidence may be obtained by either quantifying the model's predictive uncertainty, learning explicit scoring functions, or assessing whether the input is in line with the training distribution. Curiously, while these approaches all state to address the same eventual goal of detecting failures of a classifier upon real-life application, they currently constitute largely separated research fields with individual evaluation protocols, which either exclude a substantial part of relevant methods or ignore large parts of relevant failure sources. In this work, we systematically reveal current pitfalls caused by these inconsistencies and derive requirements for a holistic and realistic evaluation of failure detection. To demonstrate the relevance of this unified perspective, we present a large-scale empirical study for the first time enabling benchmarking confidence scoring functions w.r.t all relevant methods and failure sources. The revelation of a simple softmax response baseline as the overall best performing method underlines the drastic shortcomings of current evaluation in the abundance of publicized research on confidence scoring. Code and trained models are at https://github.com/IML-DKFZ/fd-shifts.

在安全 - 关键系统（例如临床诊断）中，可解释的AI（XAI）是必不可少的，这是由于致命决定的高风险。但是，目前，XAI类似于一系列宽松的方法，而不是定义明确的过程。在这项工作中，我们详细介绍了XAI最大的亚组，可解释的机器学习（IML）和经典统计数据之间的概念相似性。基于这些相似之处，我们沿着统计过程的路线提出了IML的形式化。采用这种统计视图使我们能够将机器学习模型和IML方法解释为复杂的统计工具。基于这种解释，我们推断出三个关键问题，我们认为这对于在安全至关重要的环境中的成功和采用至关重要。通过提出这些问题，我们进一步旨在激发有关IML与古典统计数据的区别以及我们对该领域未来意味着什么的讨论。

The performance of inertial navigation systems is largely dependent on the stable flow of external measurements and information to guarantee continuous filter updates and bind the inertial solution drift. Platforms in different operational environments may be prevented at some point from receiving external measurements, thus exposing their navigation solution to drift. Over the years, a wide variety of works have been proposed to overcome this shortcoming, by exploiting knowledge of the system current conditions and turning it into an applicable source of information to update the navigation filter. This paper aims to provide an extensive survey of information aided navigation, broadly classified into direct, indirect, and model aiding. Each approach is described by the notable works that implemented its concept, use cases, relevant state updates, and their corresponding measurement models. By matching the appropriate constraint to a given scenario, one will be able to improve the navigation solution accuracy, compensate for the lost information, and uncover certain internal states, that would otherwise remain unobservable.

Deep learning models are known to put the privacy of their training data at risk, which poses challenges for their safe and ethical release to the public. Differentially private stochastic gradient descent is the de facto standard for training neural networks without leaking sensitive information about the training data. However, applying it to models for graph-structured data poses a novel challenge: unlike with i.i.d. data, sensitive information about a node in a graph cannot only leak through its gradients, but also through the gradients of all nodes within a larger neighborhood. In practice, this limits privacy-preserving deep learning on graphs to very shallow graph neural networks. We propose to solve this issue by training graph neural networks on disjoint subgraphs of a given training graph. We develop three random-walk-based methods for generating such disjoint subgraphs and perform a careful analysis of the data-generating distributions to provide strong privacy guarantees. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method greatly outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline on three large graphs, and matches or outperforms it on four smaller ones.

A universal kernel is constructed whose sections approximate any causal and time-invariant filter in the fading memory category with inputs and outputs in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space. This kernel is built using the reservoir functional associated with a state-space representation of the Volterra series expansion available for any analytic fading memory filter. It is hence called the Volterra reservoir kernel. Even though the state-space representation and the corresponding reservoir feature map are defined on an infinite-dimensional tensor algebra space, the kernel map is characterized by explicit recursions that are readily computable for specific data sets when employed in estimation problems using the representer theorem. We showcase the performance of the Volterra reservoir kernel in a popular data science application in relation to bitcoin price prediction.

Heating in private households is a major contributor to the emissions generated today. Heat pumps are a promising alternative for heat generation and are a key technology in achieving our goals of the German energy transformation and to become less dependent on fossil fuels. Today, the majority of heat pumps in the field are controlled by a simple heating curve, which is a naive mapping of the current outdoor temperature to a control action. A more advanced control approach is model predictive control (MPC) which was applied in multiple research works to heat pump control. However, MPC is heavily dependent on the building model, which has several disadvantages. Motivated by this and by recent breakthroughs in the field, this work applies deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to heat pump control in a simulated environment. Through a comparison to MPC, it could be shown that it is possible to apply DRL in a model-free manner to achieve MPC-like performance. This work extends other works which have already applied DRL to building heating operation by performing an in-depth analysis of the learned control strategies and by giving a detailed comparison of the two state-of-the-art control methods.

Human motion prediction is a complex task as it involves forecasting variables over time on a graph of connected sensors. This is especially true in the case of few-shot learning, where we strive to forecast motion sequences for previously unseen actions based on only a few examples. Despite this, almost all related approaches for few-shot motion prediction do not incorporate the underlying graph, while it is a common component in classical motion prediction. Furthermore, state-of-the-art methods for few-shot motion prediction are restricted to motion tasks with a fixed output space meaning these tasks are all limited to the same sensor graph. In this work, we propose to extend recent works on few-shot time-series forecasting with heterogeneous attributes with graph neural networks to introduce the first few-shot motion approach that explicitly incorporates the spatial graph while also generalizing across motion tasks with heterogeneous sensors. In our experiments on motion tasks with heterogeneous sensors, we demonstrate significant performance improvements with lifts from 10.4% up to 39.3% compared to best state-of-the-art models. Moreover, we show that our model can perform on par with the best approach so far when evaluating on tasks with a fixed output space while maintaining two magnitudes fewer parameters.

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are regularly used for deep ocean applications. Commonly, the autonomous navigation task is carried out by a fusion between two sensors: the inertial navigation system and the Doppler velocity log (DVL). The DVL operates by transmitting four acoustic beams to the sea floor, and once reflected back, the AUV velocity vector can be estimated. However, in real-life scenarios, such as an uneven seabed, sea creatures blocking the DVL's view and, roll/pitch maneuvers, the acoustic beams' reflection is resulting in a scenario known as DVL outage. Consequently, a velocity update is not available to bind the inertial solution drift. To cope with such situations, in this paper, we leverage our BeamsNet framework and propose a Set-Transformer-based BeamsNet (ST-BeamsNet) that utilizes inertial data readings and previous DVL velocity measurements to regress the current AUV velocity in case of a complete DVL outage. The proposed approach was evaluated using data from experiments held in the Mediterranean Sea with the Snapir AUV and was compared to a moving average (MA) estimator. Our ST-BeamsNet estimated the AUV velocity vector with an 8.547% speed error, which is 26% better than the MA approach.

This project leverages advances in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) to improve the efficiency and flexibility of order-picking systems for commercial warehouses. We envision a warehouse of the future in which dozens of mobile robots and human pickers work together to collect and deliver items within the warehouse. The fundamental problem we tackle, called the order-picking problem, is how these worker agents must coordinate their movement and actions in the warehouse to maximise performance (e.g. order throughput) under given resource constraints. Established industry methods using heuristic approaches require large engineering efforts to optimise for innately variable warehouse configurations. In contrast, the MARL framework can be flexibly applied to any warehouse configuration (e.g. size, layout, number/types of workers, item replenishment frequency) and the agents learn via a process of trial-and-error how to optimally cooperate with one another. This paper details the current status of the R&D effort initiated by Dematic and the University of Edinburgh towards a general-purpose and scalable MARL solution for the order-picking problem in realistic warehouses.

Telling stories is an integral part of human communication which can evoke emotions and influence the affective states of the audience. Automatically modelling emotional trajectories in stories has thus attracted considerable scholarly interest. However, as most existing works have been limited to unsupervised dictionary-based approaches, there is no labelled benchmark for this task. We address this gap by introducing continuous valence and arousal annotations for an existing dataset of children's stories annotated with discrete emotion categories. We collect additional annotations for this data and map the originally categorical labels to the valence and arousal space. Leveraging recent advances in Natural Language Processing, we propose a set of novel Transformer-based methods for predicting valence and arousal signals over the course of written stories. We explore several strategies for fine-tuning a pretrained ELECTRA model and study the benefits of considering a sentence's context when inferring its emotionality. Moreover, we experiment with additional LSTM and Transformer layers. The best configuration achieves a Concordance Correlation Coefficient (CCC) of .7338 for valence and .6302 for arousal on the test set, demonstrating the suitability of our proposed approach. Our code and additional annotations are made available at https://github.com/lc0197/emotion_modelling_stories.